• 2 Gennaio 2019

Il nuovo report “Long-Term Megatrends 2019” è online

Il nuovo report “Long-Term Megatrends 2019” è online

Il nuovo report “Long-Term Megatrends 2019” è online 625 358 Roberto Paura

Disponibile da oggi il rapporto annuale dell’Italian Institute for the Future Long-Term Megatrends 2019, che sintetizza 10 megatrend emergenti o in fase di consolidamento sulla scorta dei segnali raccolti nel corso dell’anno appena passato. Il report, pubblicato annualmente, seleziona dieci tra i più interessanti megatrend, ossia tendenze di vasta portata, che coinvolgono diversi settori (tecnologici, economici, sociali, demografici) e una vasta parte del mondo, con un orizzonte di lungo periodo, diversamente dai normali trend che durano pochi anni o spesso anche solo pochi mesi.

Il primo tema del report di quest’anno riguarda la falsificazione della realtà a opera dei software di deepfakes, in grado di simulare volti e voci di personaggi noti, rendendo indistinguibile un video falso da uno reale: un altro tassello che si aggiunge al fenomeno della disinformazione online, da anni in crescita.

Due gli approfondimenti dedicati allo Spazio: il primo riguarda la crescita del segmento dei voli suborbitali, con il successo del primo volo con piloti umani da parte di Virgin Galactic lo scorso dicembre e l’accordo con l’Italia per uno spazioporto in Puglia, mentre il secondo approfondisce il tema della città cislunare, dopo l’annuncio della NASA che nel decennio 2020 svilupperà il Lunar Gateway tra Terra e Luna a supporto delle missioni scientifiche sulla Luna e dei voli su Marte.

Un nuovo, inquietante megatrend riguarda l’epidemia di overdose da oppioidi sintetici negli Stati Uniti, e la nuova crescita di vittime di eroina in Italia: un fenomeno favorito dalla facilità di reperimento di alcune delle nuove droghe in Rete, e dal disagio sociale sempre più diffuso tra le nuove generazioni e gli adulti over-50.

In seguito allo stallo dei negoziati sul cambiamento climatico dopo la COP24 di Katowice, cresce l’opzione geoingegneria: nei prossimi anni aumenteranno probabilmente le ricerche e i test per soluzioni tecnologiche radicali per il raffreddamento del pianeta.

Un focus è dedicato poi alla crescita del pentecostalismo e dei movimenti carismatici nel mondo cristiano, con un vero e proprio boom in America Latina e Africa, paesi dove la Chiesa giocherà nei prossimi anni la sua partita per il contenimento del fenomeno.

Trend in crescita anche per il veganesimo, con significativi aumenti del mercato dei prodotti sostitutivi di carne, latticini e altri prodotti di origine animale, grazie anche alla diffusione della filosofia antispecista.

L’applicazione del machine learning e della rivoluzione dell’intelligenza artificiale ai più disparati ambiti di ricerca sta spingendo a una nuova rivoluzione scientifica in cui saranno le IA a compiere la maggior parte delle nuove scoperte, mentre continuano i successi della medicina di precisione, con i primi trattamenti disponibili sul mercato americano ed europeo, sebbene non manchino sfide da risolvere in termini di costi e di sviluppi della nanomedicina.

L’ultimo approfondimento è sul mercato degli audiolibri, segnale del ritorno a una “cultura dell’oralità” che vedrà i contenuti audiovisivi sempre più centrali nei consumi rispetto al testo scritto.

Il report Long-Term Megatrends 2019 è gratuitamente scaricabile sul sito dell’Italian Institute for the Future.

Scarica il report

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